Electric Suburban / Electric Tahoe / Yukon / Escalade EV

[wsteele]

The rapid decline in battery costs and public demand is already driving the industry (pun intended). Ten years ago it was thought that it would be virtually impossible to get battery costs under $1000/KwH. We’re now at $125/KwH. The target for the auto industry to be profitable was $250/KwH. In 10 years they will be the more cost effective option.

All policy is window dressing made to appease the masses at this point. The govt is chasing a demand curve thats already going vertical. You’ll know they are actually serious when they stop OMG subsidies and tax incentives. Which is to say, never.

I agree that Li-ion battery pack costs per KwH have surprised most pundits, although I don't think many thought $1000/KwH was unattainable. I think the number most analysts put to attain cost parity with internal combustion is around $100 KwH, which I think most who study these things forecast to be attainable by the 2024 timeframe (albeit, the same analysts that were surprised by the current cost curve).

As far as all policy being window dressing, I think the mid-term elections will reveal a lot about how appeased the masses became.

 

[cardude2000]

I agree that Li-ion battery pack costs per KwH have surprised most pundits, although I don't think many thought $1000/KwH was unattainable. I think the number most analysts put to attain cost parity with internal combustion is around $100 KwH, which I think most who study these things forecast to be attainable by the 2024 timeframe (albeit, the same analysts that were surprised by the current cost curve).

As far as all policy being window dressing, I think the mid-term elections will reveal a lot about how appeased the masses became.

Doesn’t matter who is in office. EV’s are here and not going away. People love to blame/praise the govt for everything (common enemies and heroes are important for societal cohesion) but again, the demand curve is going vertical worldwide. How quickly perfect substitutes for EV’s (aka: IC engines) stick around in the US may move up or down a few years but in the end the result will be the same. If you see govt start to pull back from OMG subsidies/incentives then you’ll know they are serious. But they won’t. OMG is in the pocket of both sides of the aisle. They don’t even mention it. Both sides sucker people into believing that the changes they propose will make huge progress in one direction or the other. Yet neither side dares mention changes to OMG subs let alone propose meaningful change.


Re: KwH costs from WSJ. If I said >$1000 I misspoke. $1000 is where it was 10 years ago and many thought getting below $250 wasn’t feasible in the short term:





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[cardude2000]

The US became a net petroleum exporter in 2011.

To answer your question...assuming your home isn’t solar, electricity for EV’s is produced in highly efficient power plants which are increasingly using renewable sources of generation.

 

[cardude2000]

I will just say it is going to take a LOT AND A LONG TIME to tame the oil & gas tiger that exist's outside of your future hope of battery power, ECONOMICS have a play here and oil & gas are very large portion of it, there are reasons the government does and does not do things. To make all these "required" batteries you need raw materials, guess where all those materials come from? yep from under your feet, this means mining has to increase over 500% in most cases, it takes 50-100 lbs of raw material to make 1lb of battery (not just dirt i'm talking specific minerals), most of these raw materials are processed guess where? China (currently and quickly becoming our mortal cold war enemy) then you have to throw in Covid-19 economics current projections with a BEST case scenario say it will take 4 years just to catch up to where we peaked in 2019 economy wise presuming HIGH economic growth, other projections say it might take up to 2050 before we even hit the benchmark, the impact has not really even set in yet the government is still bottle feeding the economy.
a postage stamp size solar array is not going to power the empire state building, thinking battery power will go the way of the computer cpu is absurd, the materials needed for energy storage are hard materials those materials are not going to shrink to the size of a ant, more capacity means more space. It takes 100X the energy to produce a battery that will have the storage capacity of 1X the energy it took to make it. That is our reality, even a 200% increase in battery storage capacity will not meet what fossil fuels provide
The taxes generated from fossil fuel use are stupendous, if you think for even a minute they won't regulate battery powered vehicles to get the equal amount of taxes then you are just plain stupid. It's just plain economics.
on top of that fossil fuels produce 2/3rd's of the worlds electricity, it also powers shipping, flying, basically all forms of transport as we know it today (well you do have submarines and carriers). maybe someday you will be able to fly to china on battery power but I doubt it will be within any of our children's lifetimes

All well and good.

But...EV’s are here to stay and whether it’s 15 years or 30, they’re the future of mainstream automotive transportation .

 

[soulsea]

No politics!

Posts deleted and edited.

 

[Doubeleive]

No politics!

Posts deleted and edited.

dully noted, wasn't intended it is just part of the economics surrounding the green bubble, we are going to destroy the environment no matter what anyway. I guess Elon can take up the task of shooting used battery's into outer space with his shiny rockets.

 

[cardude2000]

dully noted, wasn't intended it is just part of the economics surrounding the green bubble, we are going to destroy the environment no matter what anyway. I guess Elon can take up the task of shooting used battery's into outer space with his shiny rockets.

Lithium ion battery recycling has made huge strides over the last few years. My understanding is that the only thing holding back profitability at this point is scale.


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[SnowBuck]

All well and good.
But...EV’s are here to stay and whether it’s 15 years or 30, they’re the future of mainstream automotive transportation .

Why are they here and why would they stay??? You need to look deep into that question. We have enough fossil fuels to last further into the future then we can see. We even used to be energy independent.

 

[cardude2000]

Why are they here and why would they stay??? You need to look deep into that question. We have enough fossil fuels to last further into the future then we can see. We even used to be energy independent.

No need to look deeper than “people like them”. Regardless of reason, they aren’t going away.

Fossil fuels will play a role in electricity production for a long time. And we’ve been a net petroleum exporter since 2011.


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[GTNator]

Generator. Lol

Its a proprietary battery. How do plan in tapping into that power? You know how many panels it would take to make it useful as a solar battery?

Sounds like a lot of generalizations disguised as specifics. You know like global warming.

LOL, you're the one speaking in generalizations, blanket statements full of opinion and short on facts. Do a little research before you speak about something you know nothing about. This way you can contribute to our collective knowledge and strengthen this forum, instead of wasting our time. Thank you.

from 2012 (old news!)
https://global.nissannews.com/en/releases/120530-01-e

https://eepower.com/news/nissan-to-leaf-could-power-your-home-with-power-control-system/#

https://www.autoweek.com/news/technology/a33433564/audi-wants-to-let-your-ev-power-your-home/

https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/6/1...ome-power-battery-electric-car-plug-in-hybrid

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle-to-grid