Electric Suburban / Electric Tahoe / Yukon / Escalade EV

[wsteele]

The rapid decline in battery costs and public demand is already driving the industry (pun intended). Ten years ago it was thought that it would be virtually impossible to get battery costs under $1000/KwH. We’re now at $125/KwH. The target for the auto industry to be profitable was $250/KwH. In 10 years they will be the more cost effective option.

All policy is window dressing made to appease the masses at this point. The govt is chasing a demand curve thats already going vertical. You’ll know they are actually serious when they stop OMG subsidies and tax incentives. Which is to say, never.

I agree that Li-ion battery pack costs per KwH have surprised most pundits, although I don't think many thought $1000/KwH was unattainable. I think the number most analysts put to attain cost parity with internal combustion is around $100 KwH, which I think most who study these things forecast to be attainable by the 2024 timeframe (albeit, the same analysts that were surprised by the current cost curve).

As far as all policy being window dressing, I think the mid-term elections will reveal a lot about how appeased the masses became.

 

[cardude2000]

I agree that Li-ion battery pack costs per KwH have surprised most pundits, although I don't think many thought $1000/KwH was unattainable. I think the number most analysts put to attain cost parity with internal combustion is around $100 KwH, which I think most who study these things forecast to be attainable by the 2024 timeframe (albeit, the same analysts that were surprised by the current cost curve).

As far as all policy being window dressing, I think the mid-term elections will reveal a lot about how appeased the masses became.

Doesn’t matter who is in office. EV’s are here and not going away. People love to blame/praise the govt for everything (common enemies and heroes are important for societal cohesion) but again, the demand curve is going vertical worldwide. How quickly perfect substitutes for EV’s (aka: IC engines) stick around in the US may move up or down a few years but in the end the result will be the same. If you see govt start to pull back from OMG subsidies/incentives then you’ll know they are serious. But they won’t. OMG is in the pocket of both sides of the aisle. They don’t even mention it. Both sides sucker people into believing that the changes they propose will make huge progress in one direction or the other. Yet neither side dares mention changes to OMG subs let alone propose meaningful change.


Re: KwH costs from WSJ. If I said >$1000 I misspoke. $1000 is where it was 10 years ago and many thought getting below $250 wasn’t feasible in the short term:

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[cardude2000]

The US became a net petroleum exporter in 2011.

To answer your question...assuming your home isn’t solar, electricity for EV’s is produced in highly efficient power plants which are increasingly using renewable sources of generation.

 

[cardude2000]

I will just say it is going to take a LOT AND A LONG TIME to tame the oil & gas tiger that exist's outside of your future hope of battery power, ECONOMICS have a play here and oil & gas are very large portion of it, there are reasons the government does and does not do things. To make all these "required" batteries you need raw materials, guess where all those materials come from? yep from under your feet, this means mining has to increase over 500% in most cases, it takes 50-100 lbs of raw material to make 1lb of battery (not just dirt i'm talking specific minerals), most of these raw materials are processed guess where? China (currently and quickly becoming our mortal cold war enemy) then you have to throw in Covid-19 economics current projections with a BEST case scenario say it will take 4 years just to catch up to where we peaked in 2019 economy wise presuming HIGH economic growth, other projections say it might take up to 2050 before we even hit the benchmark, the impact has not really even set in yet the government is still bottle feeding the economy.
a postage stamp size solar array is not going to power the empire state building, thinking battery power will go the way of the computer cpu is absurd, the materials needed for energy storage are hard materials those materials are not going to shrink to the size of a ant, more capacity means more space. It takes 100X the energy to produce a battery that will have the storage capacity of 1X the energy it took to make it. That is our reality, even a 200% increase in battery storage capacity will not meet what fossil fuels provide
The taxes generated from fossil fuel use are stupendous, if you think for even a minute they won't regulate battery powered vehicles to get the equal amount of taxes then you are just plain stupid. It's just plain economics.
on top of that fossil fuels produce 2/3rd's of the worlds electricity, it also powers shipping, flying, basically all forms of transport as we know it today (well you do have submarines and carriers). maybe someday you will be able to fly to china on battery power but I doubt it will be within any of our children's lifetimes

All well and good.

But...EV’s are here to stay and whether it’s 15 years or 30, they’re the future of mainstream automotive transportation .

 

[soulsea]

No politics!

Posts deleted and edited.

 

[Doubeleive]

No politics!

Posts deleted and edited.

dully noted, wasn't intended it is just part of the economics surrounding the green bubble, we are going to destroy the environment no matter what anyway. I guess Elon can take up the task of shooting used battery's into outer space with his shiny rockets.

 

[cardude2000]

dully noted, wasn't intended it is just part of the economics surrounding the green bubble, we are going to destroy the environment no matter what anyway. I guess Elon can take up the task of shooting used battery's into outer space with his shiny rockets.

Lithium ion battery recycling has made huge strides over the last few years. My understanding is that the only thing holding back profitability at this point is scale.


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[SnowBuck]

All well and good.
But...EV’s are here to stay and whether it’s 15 years or 30, they’re the future of mainstream automotive transportation .

Why are they here and why would they stay??? You need to look deep into that question. We have enough fossil fuels to last further into the future then we can see. We even used to be energy independent.

 

[cardude2000]

Why are they here and why would they stay??? You need to look deep into that question. We have enough fossil fuels to last further into the future then we can see. We even used to be energy independent.

No need to look deeper than “people like them”. Regardless of reason, they aren’t going away.

Fossil fuels will play a role in electricity production for a long time. And we’ve been a net petroleum exporter since 2011.


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[GTNator]

Generator. Lol

Its a proprietary battery. How do plan in tapping into that power? You know how many panels it would take to make it useful as a solar battery?

Sounds like a lot of generalizations disguised as specifics. You know like global warming.

LOL, you're the one speaking in generalizations, blanket statements full of opinion and short on facts. Do a little research before you speak about something you know nothing about. This way you can contribute to our collective knowledge and strengthen this forum, instead of wasting our time. Thank you.

from 2012 (old news!)
https://global.nissannews.com/en/releases/120530-01-e

https://eepower.com/news/nissan-to-leaf-could-power-your-home-with-power-control-system/#

https://www.autoweek.com/news/technology/a33433564/audi-wants-to-let-your-ev-power-your-home/

https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/6/1...ome-power-battery-electric-car-plug-in-hybrid

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle-to-grid

 

[wsteele]

Doesn’t matter who is in office. EV’s are here and not going away. People love to blame/praise the govt for everything (common enemies and heroes are important for societal cohesion) but again, the demand curve is going vertical worldwide. How quickly perfect substitutes for EV’s (aka: IC engines) stick around in the US may move up or down a few years but in the end the result will be the same. If you see govt start to pull back from OMG subsidies/incentives then you’ll know they are serious. But they won’t. OMG is in the pocket of both sides of the aisle. They don’t even mention it. Both sides sucker people into believing that the changes they propose will make huge progress in one direction or the other. Yet neither side dares mention changes to OMG subs let alone propose meaningful change.


Re: KwH costs from WSJ. If I said >$1000 I misspoke. $1000 is where it was 10 years ago and many thought getting below $250 wasn’t feasible in the short term:

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OK, so ten years ago it was thought by "Boston Consulting" that $1000/kWH was an impenetrable barrier. If any who were actually in a position to know (this toiling in the business themselves), thought $1000/kWH was some real cost barrier, the EV industry would have never made it past the novelty stage (think original Tesla Roadster). For certain, if Elon Musk had actually believed $1000/kWH was some kind of immutable law, he would have never spent the better part of his adult life on the Tesla investment.

As I said, I do agree with you that the speed that storage costs have come down has caught "most" who study such things by surprise. I also don't think the cost of storage has materially affected EV adoption to this point. The truth is, Tesla, the market leader, has been pretty much supply constrained from day one. Price elasticity doesn't seem to play much of a role in Tesla planning, at least as of yet.

I disagree with you that it doesn't matter who is running things, at least in the context that public policy can overcome natural market forces that likely would work to delay adoption of technologies like EV. If climate change wasn't as big a concern among a majority of Americans, there is no way California could mandate all new vehicles sold after 2035 be zero emissions. Public policy will greatly accellerate the adoption of EV in California, the biggest car market in the US. Public policy is why big car companies are racing to be all EV by 2035. Not because the market metrics guarantee financial success. There are too many unknowns regarding large scale supply of materials, what those costs might be when environmental, political and ethical factors are ultimately laid to rest, to be assured being all EV at GM is a 100% sure bet. The truth is the auto companies know, they have no choice but to make EV work, regardless of the risk to their ultimate success or failure.

How much does it all cost in the end? That isn't confined to the cost per kWh or what a Gigafactory costs to commission. Californian's have rolling brown outs today. Do you think widespread adoption of EV's in a state that mandates green energy first, isn't going to create a collision of goals? A collision of goals that the end user will pay for, both in pain and pocketbook.

 

[cardude2000]

OK, so ten years ago it was thought by "Boston Consulting" that $1000/kWH was an impenetrable barrier. If any who were actually in a position to know (this toiling in the business themselves), thought $1000/kWH was some real cost barrier, the EV industry would have never made it past the novelty stage (think original Tesla Roadster). For certain, if Elon Musk had actually believed $1000/kWH was some kind of immutable law, he would have never spent the better part of his adult life on the Tesla investment.

As I said, I do agree with you that the speed that storage costs have come down has caught "most" who study such things by surprise. I also don't think the cost of storage has materially affected EV adoption to this point. The truth is, Tesla, the market leader, has been pretty much supply constrained from day one. Price elasticity doesn't seem to play much of a role in Tesla planning, at least as of yet.

I disagree with you that it doesn't matter who is running things, at least in the context that public policy can overcome natural market forces that likely would work to delay adoption of technologies like EV. If climate change wasn't as big a concern among a majority of Americans, there is no way California could mandate all new vehicles sold after 2035 be zero emissions. Public policy will greatly accellerate the adoption of EV in California, the biggest car market in the US. Public policy is why big car companies are racing to be all EV by 2035. Not because the market metrics guarantee financial success. There are too many unknowns regarding large scale supply of materials, what those costs might be when environmental, political and ethical factors are ultimately laid to rest, to be assured being all EV at GM is a 100% sure bet. The truth is the auto companies know, they have no choice but to make EV work, regardless of the risk to their ultimate success or failure.

How much does it all cost in the end? That isn't confined to the cost per kWh or what a Gigafactory costs to commission. Californian's have rolling brown outs today. Do you think widespread adoption of EV's in a state that mandates green energy first, isn't going to create a collision of goals? A collision of goals that the end user will pay for, both in pain and pocketbook.

Agreed. The US is behind the EV curve when compared to most developed countries. And regardless of who is “in charge” we’ll be majority EV at some point.

Whether it’s 15 or 50 doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme of things. Will there be some “discomfort” as we transition? Sure. Always is.

Either way...

It’s coming.

 

[GTNator]

Get ready for an electric GM future, coming soon!


GM CEO Mary Barra Outlines EV Push, “Admires” Norway

General Motors is planning to spend $27 billion from 2020 to 2025 on electric and autonomous vehicles and technology. This includes launching 30 EVs globally, with two-thirds of these models set to be available in North America.

During a call with investors to report fourth-quarter and full-year 2020 earnings, chief executive officer Mary Barra hammered the message home again that GM's EV push is very real.

Barra said GM's success means taking the top spot in EV market share in North America—in other words, kicking Tesla's butt. By mid-decade, GM aims to sell more than a million electric vehicles per year in North America and China.

Success also means GM's battery-powered vehicles will be as—or more—profitable than vehicles with combustion engines. GM's new Ultium battery system has made great strides in reducing costs and engineers are already working on the next generation setup, which will cut costs even further, Barra said.

https://www.motortrend.com/news/gm-...630DCE371EA3B126522EAB2C8C7A9107A623F8E631225


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[soulsea]

Posts deleted, warnings issued.

You guys done?

If not be prepared to take a forced vacation..

 

[GTNator]

Another step closer to an electric Tahoe/Suburban variant. Good move by GM to follow Tesla's lead and start with the high end, truck in this case. The Hummer EV SUV is actually 7 inches longer than a Tahoe according to TFL.


GMC HUMMER EV SUV
Introducing the next all-electric supertruck - the GMC Hummer EV SUV. If you thought one could change the world, imagine what two can do.

https://www.gmc.com/electric/hummer-ev

 

[Fireman591]

Just wondering what the electric range will be on a Tahoe or Suburban while pulling a 7000 pound trailer? I wish GM or another vehicle maker would release a large SUV based on the Chevy Volt concept. An electric vehicle with a gasoline engine as a backup. Kinda like the idea of a diesel locomotive. You have an engine driving a generator that powers the motors on the drive line. I am afraid the range will be pretty much unrealistic when towing heavy loads. No offense but i really don't feel like stopping at a charging station every 90 miles to recharge while on vacation LOL

 

[GTNator]

Just wondering what the electric range will be on a Tahoe or Suburban while pulling a 7000 pound trailer? I wish GM or another vehicle maker would release a large SUV based on the Chevy Volt concept. An electric vehicle with a gasoline engine as a backup. Kinda like the idea of a diesel locomotive. You have an engine driving a generator that powers the motors on the drive line. I am afraid the range will be pretty much unrealistic when towing heavy loads. No offense but i really don't feel like stopping at a charging station every 90 miles to recharge while on vacation LOL

Reminds me of the 1990’s when stores started selling 30+ foot coiled telephone cords for home phones. Short sided people who thought technology would not advance, probably said the same thing about home phones. “I can only reach one room past the kitchen, and no more.” LOL

I do agree the Chevy Volt concept is a good intermediary. But advancements in technology over the next years may make it unnecessary. But it was great in 2010, and maybe they’ll do it again for specific use cases.


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[GTNator]

The next step towards an electric Tahoe/Suburban...electric Silverado. GM is becoming a technology company, like Tesla.


GM confirms electric Chevrolet Silverado pickup to follow Hummer EV https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/06/gm-...are|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard


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[Geotrash]

400 mile range, huh? Bet that towing a 6500 lb camper will cut that by about 80%.

 

[Fireman591]

Reminds me of the 1990’s when stores started selling 30+ foot coiled telephone cords for home phones. Short sided people who thought technology would not advance, probably said the same thing about home phones. “I can only reach one room past the kitchen, and no more.” LOL

I do agree the Chevy Volt concept is a good intermediary. But advancements in technology over the next years may make it unnecessary. But it was great in 2010, and maybe they’ll do it again for specific use cases.


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Well considering there is not enough lithium on the planet for this dream of all EVs by 2035 these car makers better invent a new battery with a range equal or better than lithium batteries.