2023 Tahoe Buying Advice - Ordering vs Looking For?

[TheGrayingTech]

I gave up looking for a new vehicle sitting on a lot.

I contacted 30 some dealers through the GM sites and almost all were pre-sold; I even started looking 1000 miles away.
The ones that were not pre-sold, they were VERY reluctant to do anything on price.

Instead, I told 4 local dealers what I wanted to jumped into the queue.

Market is hopefully changing though but I’m still expecting 3-6 months.

 

[Polo08816]

I gave up looking for a new vehicle sitting on a lot.

I contacted 30 some dealers through the GM sites and almost all were pre-sold; I even started looking 1000 miles away.
The ones that were not pre-sold, they were VERY reluctant to do anything on price.

Instead, I told 4 local dealers what I wanted to jumped into the queue.

Market is hopefully changing though but I’m still expecting 3-6 months.

So the interesting thing is there are a lot of people who have orders at multiple dealerships and will take the first arrival. I think because of this the demand is artificially higher than true demand at the moment.

 

[Stbentoak]

So the interesting thing is there are a lot of people who have orders at multiple dealerships and will take the first arrival. I think because of this the demand is artificially higher than true demand at the moment.

They have multiple orders because dealers don't care if you take it or not. They have many others waiting who will and could possibly get more for it since it's on the ground.
This would be fixed if dealers only took non refundable deposits. Would cut down all the chaff in the system...

 

[Polo08816]

They have multiple orders because dealers don't care if you take it or not. They have many others waiting who will and could possibly get more for it since it's on the ground.
This would be fixed if dealers only took non refundable deposits. Would cut down all the chaff in the system...

There's little chance people would pay a non-refundable deposit if you can't guarantee a reasonable delivery timeframe or that the vehicle will come with all the options selected.

And the refundable and non-refundable deposits would vary from dealer to dealer. Implementing a more transparent ordering process like Ford's would reduce some of the "chaff" in the system at a nationwide level.

As far as the demand/supply situation, I think you're right at the moment. I see it being substantially different in the 6-12 month timeframe as more and more dealers transition back to a volume mindset.

Manufacturers need time to adjust to the demand of 1/2 ton based full size SUVs but that should be feasible in a 2-3 year time frame. They did so with the 1/2 ton pickups from the introduction of the revised F150 in 2021 and GM 1500s in 2022. Right now supply and demand are "matched" for 1/2 ton pickups and there's certainly inventory on dealership lots.

 

[DuraYuk]

There's little chance people would pay a non-refundable deposit if you can't guarantee a reasonable delivery timeframe or that the vehicle will come with all the options selected.

And the refundable and non-refundable deposits would vary from dealer to dealer. Implementing a more transparent ordering process like Ford's would reduce some of the "chaff" in the system at a nationwide level.

As far as the demand/supply situation, I think you're right at the moment. I see it being substantially different in the 6-12 month timeframe as more and more dealers transition back to a volume mindset.

Manufacturers need time to adjust to the demand of 1/2 ton based full size SUVs but that should be feasible in a 2-3 year time frame. They did so with the 1/2 ton pickups from the introduction of the revised F150 in 2021 and GM 1500s in 2022. Right now supply and demand are "matched" for 1/2 ton pickups and there's certainly inventory on dealership lots.

The volume model is dead. Every manufacturer has stated they will not pursue that. It's more profitable to have a few vehicles on hand and order the rest as needed. It's SOP now.

 

[Polo08816]

The volume model is dead. Every manufacturer has stated they will not pursue that. It's more profitable to have a few vehicles on hand and order the rest as needed. It's SOP now.

Of course manufacturers would state (and want) that, but that doesn't mean it's the ground truth. Ultimately, you have to react to what your competitors are doing because you can't make decisions in a vacuum. Ceding market share to competitors for short term profits is a business decision.

Granger Ford has ~43 F150s in inventory: https://www.grangerford.com/searchnew.aspx?Model=F-150

Sheehy Ford (local) has about ~56 F150s in inventory: https://www.sheehyfordgaithersburg.com/new-vehicles/?_dFR[Location][0]=Sheehy%20Ford%20Lincoln%20of%20Gaithersburg&_dFR[make][0]=Ford&_dFR[model][0]=F-150&_dFR[type][0]=New&_paymentType=our_price

Robideaux GMC has about 38 Sierra 1500s in inventory: https://www.robideaux.com/VehicleSearchResults?search=new&make=GMC&model=Sierra 1500

These are some of the most competitive dealers in terms of pricing so what would inventory look like at another dealership that is looking to get MSRP?

 

[DuraYuk]

Of course manufacturers would state (and want) that, but that doesn't mean it's the ground truth. Ultimately, you have to react to what your competitors are doing because you can't make decisions in a vacuum. Ceding market share to competitors for short term profits is a business decision.

Granger Ford has ~43 F150s in inventory: https://www.grangerford.com/searchnew.aspx?Model=F-150

Sheehy Ford (local) has about ~56 F150s in inventory: https://www.sheehyfordgaithersburg.com/new-vehicles/?_dFR[Location][0]=Sheehy%20Ford%20Lincoln%20of%20Gaithersburg&_dFR[make][0]=Ford&_dFR[model][0]=F-150&_dFR[type][0]=New&_paymentType=our_price

Robideaux GMC has about 38 Sierra 1500s in inventory: https://www.robideaux.com/VehicleSearchResults?search=new&make=GMC&model=Sierra 1500

These are some of the most competitive dealers in terms of pricing so what would inventory look like at another dealership that is looking to get MSRP?

This change won't happen overnight but it is what every manufacturer is doing in America at least. A lot of those "inventory' vehicles are not on the lot yet or coming soon.

They are going to a much more lean model. Less waste and can maintain price better without tons of aging units they have to sell before they get older.

Makes sense. Having 100s of the same model never did make much sense. Takes up real estate. Gotta keep them clean. Gotta keep them secure . just tons of waste throughout.

I welcome the change.

 

[Wwes]

They are going to a much more lean model. Less waste and can maintain price better without tons of aging units they have to sell before they get older.

This can't possibly happen with the legacy mfg-dealer model. Manufacturers book the revenue when the vehicle is shipped to the dealer. Consumers buy from dealers. The manufacturers customers are the dealers, not the consumers.

The manufacturers that do direct-to-consumer models like Tesla control their process and have a much cleaner situation. Never heard of a Tesla "dealer" with a 4-square, first they don't have dealers, just delivery centers, and second they have transparent pricing because there's no middleman trying to work an additional profit.

Manufacturers have an incentive to maximize their own profit, which generally means running factories flat out.

 

[DuraYuk]

This can't possibly happen with the legacy mfg-dealer model. Manufacturers book the revenue when the vehicle is shipped to the dealer. Consumers buy from dealers. The manufacturers customers are the dealers, not the consumers.
The manufacturers that do direct-to-consumer models like Tesla control their process and have a much cleaner situation. Never heard of a Tesla "dealer" with a 4-square, first they don't have dealers, just delivery centers, and second they have transparent pricing because there's no middleman trying to work an additional profit.

Manufacturers have an incentive to maximize their own profit, which generally means running factories flat out.

We call this a change.

Covid facilitated this change.

Manufacturers and dealers got to test run something no one though possible.

Even ****** cars were getting marked up or pre sold.

Gross on vehicles during covid was incredibly high.

The lean model is the new model. The pre sold model is the new model. The placing your order and waiting for your vehicle is the new model.

It is new. As in has not been done. As in goes against the status quo. As in tesla and its ilk are also a driving force behind these decisions.

 

[TheGrayingTech]

Coming at it from the Tech side, Dell does both. We supply the channel with set configs that compete on price. Supply efficiency drives down costs and thus our BTO (build to order) units make more profit. Even with a chip shortage, Dell was still very well positioned for supply.

Taking that as a possible model, GM could still have dealer orders for a fast, local sale, but process BTO nationally. Further, they could let you choose the dealer to work through for PDI and optional addons.

I also was transparent with my dealers. I told them all, I’m in the queue at other dealers. But 1 dealer I also said, you are the closest to me and I’ll get my service done here if I buy from here. Trying to incentivize them and it’s true, I’d rather buy from them than any of the other 3.

 

[Polo08816]

This change won't happen overnight but it is what every manufacturer is doing in America at least. A lot of those "inventory' vehicles are not on the lot yet or coming soon.

They are going to a much more lean model. Less waste and can maintain price better without tons of aging units they have to sell before they get older.

Makes sense. Having 100s of the same model never did make much sense. Takes up real estate. Gotta keep them clean. Gotta keep them secure . just tons of waste throughout.

I welcome the change.

This can't possibly happen with the legacy mfg-dealer model. Manufacturers book the revenue when the vehicle is shipped to the dealer. Consumers buy from dealers. The manufacturers customers are the dealers, not the consumers.

The manufacturers that do direct-to-consumer models like Tesla control their process and have a much cleaner situation. Never heard of a Tesla "dealer" with a 4-square, first they don't have dealers, just delivery centers, and second they have transparent pricing because there's no middleman trying to work an additional profit.

Manufacturers have an incentive to maximize their own profit, which generally means running factories flat out.

Most Americans want to see and feel what they will buy - especially something as expensive as a home or house purchase. Most Americans aren't in a financial position to have a car order in the hopper with the expectation that their current vehicle will be a total loss or beyond repairable in 3-6 months time.

A manufacturer can choose to have the order-only model but they're leaving a lot of volume on the table for their competitors to gain market share. I only see an order-only model viable for exotic car manufacturers - not a mainstream auto manufacturer.

We call this a change.

Covid facilitated this change.

Manufacturers and dealers got to test run something no one though possible.

Even ****** cars were getting marked up or pre sold.

Gross on vehicles during covid was incredibly high.

The lean model is the new model. The pre sold model is the new model. The placing your order and waiting for your vehicle is the new model.

It is new. As in has not been done. As in goes against the status quo. As in tesla and its ilk are also a driving force behind these decisions.

Oh, you haven't heard. I would argue that Tesla is in a position where it has to respond to competition it didn't have a few years ago:

Tesla offers $3,750 discount for Model 3, Model Y deliveries in December | TechCrunch

Tesla's discount might be a way to boost Q4 sales as many customers push deliveries to 2023 to be eligible for the EV tax credit.

techcrunch.com

And it's a reaction to losing market share from competition:

Tesla still owns US EV market but is losing market share, shows new data

S&P Global Mobility released new EV sale data that show Tesla still owns the US EV market, but it is losing market shares.

electrek.co

Tesla is offering a $3750 rebate on Model 3 and Model Y if you take delivery this month. If you ordered a Model 3 today, you would be able to take delivery in December per their website. If anything, Tesla is going more towards a volume model because the competition has increased. That's how much and how quickly the car market has changed in the last few months.

 

[TXNJ]

We call this a change.

Covid facilitated this change.

Manufacturers and dealers got to test run something no one though possible.

Even ****** cars were getting marked up or pre sold.

Gross on vehicles during covid was incredibly high.

The lean model is the new model. The pre sold model is the new model. The placing your order and waiting for your vehicle is the new model.

It is new. As in has not been done. As in goes against the status quo. As in tesla and its ilk are also a driving force behind these decisions.

I generally agree with all of this. I do think we are going to move to a 'order and wait' model, but with shorter (and more predictable) wait times than we currently experience.

Where I am less certain is what that will look like further down the road (like 3+ years from now). Dealers only have two things they can really compete on, and those are price and availability. it's not like a group of competing Italian restaurants, where they can all produce a pizza using a general industry-accepted ingredient list, but have wildly different products at the end and you are giving significant weight to the one that tastes the best. A Yukon SLT has a fixed ingredient list and will be the same no matter who you buy it from. Sure, there are the intangibles like service, how much they hassle you in finance, loaner car programs, etc., but many buyers are willing to put a lot less weight on these aspects than they are price and availability. The availability aspect wasn't a significant factor in the past. Today it's the leading screening attribute. So I wonder if down the road you will see dealers slowly build their unsold inventory, using fancy algorithms to predict what they have the best chance of selling, as a means of differentiating themselves from other dealers. And then, like everything in life where you have to follow the herd or be left behind, do other dealers follow suit.

If you had 3 dealers in your local area, and one of them was known to carry more inventory than the others, you are likely going to at least inquire of them first. I think the dealers will see this as an opportunity to justify keeping the prices closer to MSRP and they will work hard to dial in their predictive models that tell them what models/trims they have the best chance of selling off the lot.

 

[shekmark]

I tried for a while and gave up.
Plus because of the chip shortage, not only are dealers that have vehicles in stock asking for MSRP for vehicles with less standard items but then put extra crap on them we don't want...I am going to ride it out. I gave up on buying an F350 too because of the new policies and dealers that were selling below invoice at ford got their hands slapped. I ended up ordering a Ram TRX at 10K below the sticker price. Now with the big incentives at JEEP (below Invoice)...I am thinking about possibly getting a grand wagoneer. I will wait to see if GM starts getting a build-up of inventory...I don't trust the JEEP twin-turbo v6. I rather get a 6.2 V8.

I believe it’s actually he new inline 6. Supposed to be nice motor. Two versions but both have lots of power.

 

[meatman1947]

I have been in the market for a 2023 Tahoe LT for about 6 months now. As I won't pay more than MSRP (most dealers want $2k - $8k over) and I am not in a rush it's been a lot of looking. I finally found two dealers within 100 miles of me that are selling at MSRP but neither had an LT in stock or comming.

After speaking with one of the dealers I placed an "order" with them for a 2023 Tahoe Silver (Luxury Package, 20" wheels, cross bars, Max Trailers (if they can get it) $69,330MSRP). No money down and I can walk any time, but the dealer explained this is not a traditional "order" where GM would build the Tahoe but when given the chance by GM the dealer would find a car that I want and take it in their stock to sell to me. I guess once a month or so dealers can pick a couple of newly built vehicles from a GM list to bring to their lot. I was told it takes about 12 weeks for this process, depending on what is offered and who has put their request in before me.

Has anyone done an order like this? Is there any other advice? I don't mind waiting but the value of my trade is going down and rates are going up.

I have looked anywhere within 250 miles of me and either the car/color is not available or if it is they what way over MSRP.

Thanks.

I JUST ORDERED ANOTHER NEW TAHOE PREMIER, THE ONE I BOUGHT DIDN'T HAVE ADAPTIVE CRUISE CONTROL (SALESMAN SAID IT DID)AND THE DEALER TOLD ME THAT THEY ARE TAKING ORDERS ON ALLOCATION ONLY, MEANING THAT WHEN GM SAYS THEY HAVE AN OPENNG THEY WILL LET THEM ORDER IT AND WOULD TAKE 8 WEEKS