2022 order cutoff to 2023 order-to-availability

[Polo08816]

Just today, the Fed chairman was unequivocally saying that they would be getting more aggressive on interest rates with at least one 50 basis point hike coming in the near future. The Fed will need to play some serious catch up and we're in for some significant challenges.
Also, "many many Americans"... I think the upper middle class and wealthy American families did fine during the pandemic - any demographic with substantial assets in equities. But that's not the vast majority of Americans. The average American is getting owned by inflation because they didn't own any real estate to get in on the real estate boom and they don't own significant equity holdings where they got in on the stock market boom either.

People are going to be better off waiting unless they "need" a vehicle today. I can't see myself spending that money on a de-featured vehicle as a matter of principle.

understand what you are saying…that the auctions prices may be coming down…but if they are, the dealers definitely aren’t passing those savings on to the consumer….

there are several 22 Tahoe Z71s within a reasonable distance of my location (some with a couple hundred miles, some with a few thousand)…all priced closer to $80k than $75k…and these aren’t loaded out rigs..stopped in at a local dealer, asking $79k+ for a 22 Z71 with a MSRP under $65k. Even if they sell it for $4-5k less than what they have it listed for, it’s still $8-10k over sticker

I’ll find out here in a couple weeks when we try and sell our 2021 AT4

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It's a matter of when, not if, those decreases will be passed on to the consumer.

 

[firsttimetahoe]

Those prices are disgusting. You can build a brand new 22 Z71 with every package and add-on for around 80k.

 

[todayusay]

It's a matter of when, not if, those decreases will be passed on to the consumer.

agreed. but the topic is revolving around when the mark up on both used and new Tahoes/Yukons will evaporate - not just pull back some...even if a "used" Tahoe isn't bringing $10-12-15k over MSRP, any trim over a LS/LT is still going to command a premium (over MSRP) for at a minimum the next 12 months....that's just my opinion.

When there are still people paying the market adjustment on new Tahoes/Yukons, the demand on the used side will remain...like the other poster mentioned, if there isn't any stock inventory to be bought...whether we agree with it or not, consumers will continue to seek out options.

Most don't want to go through the process of buying a new vehicle every 5-6 months but
a buyer, with a little leg work, should be able to order a LT or above at MSRP... then turn around and order another one when they pick up the ordered unit and continue to trade every 6 months at least until summer of 2023 and sell/trade the other one for at a minimum what they paid for it

the dealer at the link below has an interesting approach, they have their current incoming/ordered vehicles listed and if those vehicles already have a deposit placed on them...HD trucks and large SUVs are all spoken for...when this trend flips and most dealers don't already have the majority of their large SUVs "sold" is when this market will pull back.

That is ultimately the biggest unknown, is that a business model that the car companies will ever go back to?

https://www.redriverchevy.com/vehicles-in-production/

.

 

[todayusay]

and the topic that really hasn't been addressed - MSRP increases...will play a role as well.

Just noticed that GM has started to implement mid-year price increases (guess you could say end of the model year increases) - which will allow for the 2023MY increases to be even larger.

 

[Stbentoak]

This really isn’t that hard. Vehicles are in high demand especially SUV’s and trucks. Car lots are empty. Not refilling. Supply chain restrictions will continue and not abate for at least 12 months. Could actually get worse. MSRP’s will go higher every year.
Dealer model will never go back to excess vehicles on the lot any longer, all major manufacturers have made noise about going to the “come in and order it and get what you want” model in showrooms. The few vehicles that will be on dealer lots will go for MSRP. Won’t be any negotiating unless it’s a mass-produced Camry or Accord. SUVs and trucks have been and will continue to be a hot ticket for the foreseeable future.

 

[Buffalown]

Just today, the Fed chairman was unequivocally saying that they would be getting more aggressive on interest rates with at least one 50 basis point hike coming in the near future. The Fed will need to play some serious catch up and we're in for some significant challenges.
Also, "many many Americans"... I think the upper middle class and wealthy American families did fine during the pandemic - any demographic with substantial assets in equities. But that's not the vast majority of Americans. The average American is getting owned by inflation because they didn't own any real estate to get in on the real estate boom and they don't own significant equity holdings where they got in on the stock market boom either.

I don’t think the demographic that is purchasing these vehicles will be put off by a percentage point or two on their financing deal…the fact is demand is currently much higher than supply and I can’t see that changing any time in the foreseeable future. If you are choosing to wait it out to get a better deal you may be waiting for a long time (I do agree on never paying over MSRP, I’d sooner walk to work than do that)

 

[Joe Butcher]

It is great to see lively interest product ordering despite the results in the latest Consumer report! I am a older owner from the 76 k Blazer days,with the 95 Tahoe still in the family,currently driving 2013 Tahoe. I miss the tailgate, Front Recovery hooks, Locking diff, from the older models. The rear load floor with the 3rd row removed was really Tough , and now it is mostly back of seats. Sure like to hear some comments about the current rear end with limited slip. I've not heard much lifter info lately. It may not be all bad as those with issues got a extended warranty!

 

[Polo08816]

Looks like another Chapman Ford in the NJ/PA area is publicly offering 2% off invoice pricing on new Expedition orders. It joins a list of other Ford dealerships advertising ordering an Expedition below invoice: https://www.expeditionforum.com/threads/now-ordering-2022-expedition-at-2-under-invoice.50348/

Koons Woodbridge Ford (5% below invoice)
Granger Ford (3% below invoice)

 

[DenaliCountry]

This really isn’t that hard. Vehicles are in high demand especially SUV’s and trucks. Car lots are empty. Not refilling. Supply chain restrictions will continue and not abate for at least 12 months. Could actually get worse. MSRP’s will go higher every year.
Dealer model will never go back to excess vehicles on the lot any longer, all major manufacturers have made noise about going to the “come in and order it and get what you want” model in showrooms. The few vehicles that will be on dealer lots will go for MSRP. Won’t be any negotiating unless it’s a mass-produced Camry or Accord. SUVs and trucks have been and will continue to be a hot ticket for the foreseeable future.

100% This. Nothing is getting cheaper and dealer "over inventory" mark downs are a way of the past.

 

[DenaliCountry]

Hopefully that's the case. If not, I'll be putting off my order until 2024. Hopefully the economy tanks by then.

Ahhhh yes, lets hope the American people fall on even harder times so you can get a $5K discount on your Yukon lol.

 

[Polo08816]

Ahhhh yes, lets hope the American people fall on even harder times so you can get a $5K discount on your Yukon lol.

Well, what we have been doing is just delaying the inevitable. We will feel the pain at some point - the only question is when and by how much. And if you know it's coming, it would be wise to position yourself as best as possible because the economy tanking presents opportunity.

 

[firsttimetahoe]

when this trend flips and most dealers don't already have the majority of their large SUVs "sold" is when this market will pull back.

That is ultimately the biggest unknown, is that a business model that the car companies will ever go back to?

So based on the original post of this thread, the last chance a dealer can place an order for 2022s is in April. But assuming the dealer has all of those orders already claimed for by a deposit, which is likely….then that dealer will not be able to sell a new 2022 Tahoe to anyone who goes to their dealership in May, June, July or August looking for one. The only way that’ll happen is if a deal falls through with someone who put down a deposit. That seems very uncommon.
So if you go to a dealer in those months your only choice will be you have to build one and wait until September, the earliest, which is when the 2023s will be in production. Or buy a used Tahoe.

Anyone who recently bought a Tahoe and has it in their possession will likely be in a great position to be able to sell there’s back to the dealer for a premium, because dealers will be desperate to get their hands on them because they’ll have no incoming inventory for 4 months that they can sell, outside of that which they already have buyers for. And in that case, they’ll be able to sell the used Tahoe for more than MSRP because what other option does the buyer have other than months for an order that can take months to get built.

 

[todayusay]

Looks like another Chapman Ford in the NJ/PA area is publicly offering 2% off invoice pricing on new Expedition orders. It joins a list of other Ford dealerships advertising ordering an Expedition below invoice: https://www.expeditionforum.com/threads/now-ordering-2022-expedition-at-2-under-invoice.50348/

Koons Woodbridge Ford (5% below invoice)
Granger Ford (3% below invoice)

Granger also has a Ram dealership and they are 4% under invoice on Rams…similar pricing (percentage is slighty different) on all other Chrysler models

GM needs to revamp their ordering process…if you’re on a forum you probably understand the process…everyone else is rolling the dice hoping their dealer is somewhat helpful or knows what they are doing

 

[Steebu]

Well, back to the original point of my thread ...

... spoke to my dealer and canned my 22 Denali order. It was Denali + Premium package, so fairly straightforward, but he indicated that items in the Premium package were on constraint until April.

Orders for 2023 begin in May but he couldn't specify exactly when in May. Given the current craziness in the world it could be pushed out or it could be May 1. He also could not confirm that GM suppliers have committed to the first batch of 23's with full features, so if there are any suppliers or anyone in the know on this forum please chime in. He did indicate that in the absolute best-case scenario (no constraints for first batch of 23's) I could order in May and have a full-featured vehicle in July. Worst-case scenario I'd get a '23 sometime in November or December with missing features. He said the reality was, not surprisingly, somewhere in between. Just too many unknown variables at this point: supply chain, chip shortage, war, etc.

I guess we'll know more in a month and a half!

 

[StephenPT]

I think we're at the point where if you don't have an order in the system and moving beyond 1100 status, your order will likely turn into a '23MY.

I have two dealers I've told to get back in touch with me when the '23 Order Guide is released. We'll see if I hear anything back from them. My guess is I'll find the info before they do.

 

[MM2469]

My Yukon Denali was built in February ’22 and has the sliding console. I bought it in transit so not sure when it was ordered.

From what I can see, it looks like it is currently available only for the Denali and High Country trim levels. (per GMauthority March 8th and 10th 2022)

 

[todayusay]

Well, back to the original point of my thread ...

... spoke to my dealer and canned my 22 Denali order. It was Denali + Premium package, so fairly straightforward, but he indicated that items in the Premium package were on constraint until April.

Orders for 2023 begin in May but he couldn't specify exactly when in May. Given the current craziness in the world it could be pushed out or it could be May 1. He also could not confirm that GM suppliers have committed to the first batch of 23's with full features, so if there are any suppliers or anyone in the know on this forum please chime in. He did indicate that in the absolute best-case scenario (no constraints for first batch of 23's) I could order in May and have a full-featured vehicle in July. Worst-case scenario I'd get a '23 sometime in November or December with missing features. He said the reality was, not surprisingly, somewhere in between. Just too many unknown variables at this point: supply chain, chip shortage, war, etc.

I guess we'll know more in a month and a half!

July seems extremely optimisti…I’d lean more towards the end of August/September for the first ‘23 models to start shipping…

 

[firsttimetahoe]

Isn’t it odd that GM’s order process sounds like - if you ordered a 2022 at the end of last year into early this year, there are a whole bunch of features and add-ons that you can’t get (either those that have been on constraint for months making people remove them to get their order accepted or those that they just got rid of entirely). But if you order in May and wait until September the earliest, the 2023s will have all of those features.

I feel like the same thing happening now can easily happen to people who order a 2023 late into this year (around October) and again in early 2023.

Seems like you need to order a 2023 in May and hope it gets built immediately to know you won’t have issues getting things you want. Shouldn’t they worry about making the 2022 order customers conent?

 

[Polo08816]

Isn’t it odd that GM’s order process sounds like - if you ordered a 2022 at the end of last year into early this year, there are a whole bunch of features and add-ons that you can’t get (either those that have been on constraint for months making people remove them to get their order accepted or those that they just got rid of entirely). But if you order in May and wait until September the earliest, the 2023s will have all of those features.

I feel like the same thing happening now can easily happen to people who order a 2023 late into this year (around October) and again in early 2023.

Seems like you need to order a 2023 in May and hope it gets built immediately to know you won’t have issues getting things you want. Shouldn’t they worry about making the 2022 order customers conent?

It's all about making the next sale.

 

[firsttimetahoe]

It's all about making the next sale.

I understand, but when you make people wait long and keep making them eliminate features/options to build their car, you're eventually going to make them turn elsewhere