VERY likely oil shortages on the horizon: stock up now! (Availability & deal thread)

TrueAt1stLight · May 20, 2026

From a very reputable industry source on another forum, there is a very high likelihood of oil shortages on the near horizon due to the confilct with Iran. This post IS NOT to discuss the political nature of that conflict, rather to give fellow forum members a source for oil availability for our rigs and at discounts which soon will likely disappear, followed by significant price hikes at best, or at worst, extreme lack of product.

I’ll start: for those with 6.2L engines between 2021 and 2024 that had the oil weight change after the pico test recall, Walmart has our spec oil on sale with free delivery (European Car Formula 0W-40) and there's a $10 rebate through Mobil:

https://www.walmart.com/ip/Mobil-1-...ll-Synthetic-Motor-Oil-0W-40-5-Quart/23636902

LSCALADE · May 20, 2026

The two oils I use:

Still not affected on Amazon. Time to order a few jugs.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CQ347YVN?ref_=ppx_hzod_title_dt_b_fed_asin_title_0_0

And this.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01MF94FAK?ref_=ppx_hzod_title_dt_b_fed_asin_title_0_0

Double J · May 20, 2026

Ive seen some industry analysts suggesting the same…more acute for producers with the Dexos certification.

Looks like 5w-30 Mobil 1 synthetic Dexos now showing out of stock at Walmart.com and also dont see it on Amazon but Castrol does show availability Was in a Walmart yesterday and they do have their SuperTech labeled full synthetic Dexos 1 for about $17 for a 5 quart jug and also had quarts available of the same. However, i do not see that as an online order option. Amazon still has the AC Delco 5-30 ….

Just just completed an oil change this week and have 8 qts of AC Delco and a filter on the shelf for the next oil dump but considering getting another round as it will always be used.

BacDoc · May 21, 2026

I’m going the Al Gore route - getting a 500 gallon tank and burying it in my yard so I can tap into it after the world heats up and the ice caps melt and Florida is under water.
Wait a minute!
If Florida is under water then the roads will be flooded and my Tahoe will be useless but my boat with Yamaha 300HP 4 stroke engine will be perfect transportation and it can use the same oil!
I just have to modify the tank to be waterproof pump ability but I’m sure AI can help!
Thank God!

Sorry if anyone takes this as political but for some reason I couldn’t resist!

Doubeleive · May 21, 2026

Don't forget the TP, takes oil to run the machines to make it....... :Get him!:

blondie70 · May 21, 2026

Yep...no job's finished 'till the paperwork's done !!!!!

fondupot · May 22, 2026

I have 2 years worth of oil change supplies for my Yukon. Amsoil 0W20.

blanchard7684 · May 23, 2026

My local parts store in a tiny W Tx town must have a miraculous supply chain. The shelves are fully stocked if not overstocked. Even have some mail in rebates.

Stbentoak · May 23, 2026

Three jugs and 2 filters last me 2 years.... Somehow I think we'll survive.....
But I'm sure there are those that will order a Drum......

TrueAt1stLight · May 23, 2026

homesick · May 23, 2026

I read that full synthetics are gonna suffer shortages because of this.

Can y'all tell me how natural shortages are gonna cause synthetic shortages; other than people just switching to synthetic because their natural source dries up? That was not the flavor of the story.

I'm leaning toward 'clickbait story' so far.

joe

Marky Dissod · May 23, 2026

homesick said:
Can y'all tell me how natural shortages are gonna cause synthetic shortages; other than people just switching to synthetic because their natural source dries up?

Pennzoil PureBase makes 'synthetic' motor oil from natural gas?
Also, decades ago, Castrol lobbied to change the legal definition of the word 'synthetic' so they could filter and chemically treat non-synthetic motor oil,
til it behaved and 'performed' similarly to lab-grown synthetic oil (that's why there are different grades of 'synthetic' oil, some are more synthetic than others).

homesick · May 23, 2026

Marky Dissod said:
Pennzoil PureBase makes 'synthetic' motor oil from natural gas?
Also, decades ago, Castrol lobbied to change the legal definition of the word 'synthetic' so they could filter and chemically treat non-synthetic motor oil,
til it behaved and 'performed' similarly to lab-grown synthetic oil (that's why there are different grades of 'synthetic' oil, some are more synthetic than others).

Only lobbied, or succeeded?

You're right though. Muddying definitions is almost as popular in marketing as it is in politics.

joe

Marky Dissod · May 23, 2026

homesick said:
Only lobbied, or succeeded?

Successfully lobbied.
"Are Group III base oils “synthetic?”
Yes, in most countries anyway.

A true definition for the term “synthetic oil” has been difficult to reach, although it has generally been accepted that
the term represents those lubricants that have been specifically manufactured for a high level of performance.
Group III base oils with very high viscosity indices can be called synthetic oils in most countries.
Historically, it was widely accepted that only Group IV base oils made from PAOs were true “synthetics.”

A famous lawsuit between Mobil and Castrol changed that. Mobil charged that Castrol was falsely marketing its Syntec motor oil as a synthetic oil
although it wasn’t made from PAO base oils (now Group IV). Mobil’s claim was based on results of independent lab testing that showed
samples of Syntec it obtained as early as December 1997 contained 100 percent mineral oil.
The two sides battled it out, but in a landmark 1999 ruling, the National Advertising Division of the Council of Better Business Bureaus ruled that
Castrol Syntec, as then formulated, was a “synthetic” motor oil.

Debate raged then, and still rages today. You can find all kinds of purists populating Internet forums who refuse to recognize Group III oils as “synthetics.”
For them, it’s PAO or nothing.

Try not to get caught up in the “my-base-oil-versus-your-base-oil” cage match. The base oils that go into the oil aren’t as important to your engine
as the performance that comes out of the oil. Look for motor oils that offer performance claims backed by industry-standard testing or real-world results.
That’s what’s really important.
If you really need to know which base oils a formulation uses, you’ll have to do some investigative work since oil companies protect that information as proprietary.

For details, check out this post: How Much “Synthetic” Is In My Oil?"

https://blog.amsoil.com/are-all-synthetic-oil-groups-the-same-group-iii-vs-iv-vs-v/

https://blog.amsoil.com/how-much-synthetic-is-in-my-oil/

homesick · May 23, 2026

Marky Dissod said:
Successfully lobbied.
"Are Group III base oils “synthetic?”
Yes, in most countries anyway.

A true definition for the term “synthetic oil” has been difficult to reach, although it has generally been accepted that
the term represents those lubricants that have been specifically manufactured for a high level of performance.
Group III base oils with very high viscosity indices can be called synthetic oils in most countries.
Historically, it was widely accepted that only Group IV base oils made from PAOs were true “synthetics.”

A famous lawsuit between Mobil and Castrol changed that. Mobil charged that Castrol was falsely marketing its Syntec motor oil as a synthetic oil
although it wasn’t made from PAO base oils (now Group IV). Mobil’s claim was based on results of independent lab testing that showed
samples of Syntec it obtained as early as December 1997 contained 100 percent mineral oil.
The two sides battled it out, but in a landmark 1999 ruling, the National Advertising Division of the Council of Better Business Bureaus ruled that
Castrol Syntec, as then formulated, was a “synthetic” motor oil.

Debate raged then, and still rages today. You can find all kinds of purists populating Internet forums who refuse to recognize Group III oils as “synthetics.”
For them, it’s PAO or nothing.

Try not to get caught up in the “my-base-oil-versus-your-base-oil” cage match. The base oils that go into the oil aren’t as important to your engine
as the performance that comes out of the oil. Look for motor oils that offer performance claims backed by industry-standard testing or real-world results.
That’s what’s really important.
If you really need to know which base oils a formulation uses, you’ll have to do some investigative work since oil companies protect that information as proprietary.

For details, check out this post: How Much “Synthetic” Is In My Oil?"

https://blog.amsoil.com/are-all-synthetic-oil-groups-the-same-group-iii-vs-iv-vs-v/

https://blog.amsoil.com/how-much-synthetic-is-in-my-oil/

This is interesting, but I don't really care.

My question is 'how does a squeezed supply of dino-oil create shortages of synthetic oil?' I'm assuming that synthetics are either all, or nearly all [in blends], synthetic.

joe

pronstar · May 23, 2026

homesick said:
This is interesting, but I don't really care.

My question is 'how does a squeezed supply of dino-oil create shortages of synthetic oil?' I'm assuming that synthetics are either all, or nearly all [in blends], synthetic.

joe

It’s either crude pre-distillation, or its GTL (as mentioned in another reply)

TrueAt1stLight · May 23, 2026

homesick said:
I'm leaning toward 'clickbait story' so far.

joe

Don’t buy extra oil. You do you.

homesick · May 23, 2026

pronstar said:
It’s either crude pre-distillation, or its GTL (as mentioned in another reply)
View attachment 486052

I don't see where this says a conversion into synthetic took place, so it still doesn't answer the question for me.

I appreciate y'all answering, but a simple explanation, without technical lingo, would be a lot more helpful.

joe

homesick · May 23, 2026

TrueAt1stLight said:
Don’t buy extra oil. You do you.

Well, aren't you clever? Thanks.

joe

homesick · May 24, 2026

So... much [most?] "synthetic" oil is still actually just highly processed natural petroleum, even stuff marketed as "full synthetic". Correct? Thanks again to y'all who answered.

I had thought the boundary between them was much sharper.

joe

VERY likely oil shortages on the horizon: stock up now! (Availability & deal thread)

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